WEATHER AND THE VENUS TRANSIT
---------------------------
John Pazmino
NYSkies Astronomy Inc
www.nyskies.org
nyskies@nyskies.org
2012 June 7
Introduction
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For the transit of Venus on 2012 June 5 in the New York City area,
NYSkies assembled a master roster of public viewing sessions. About 15
astronomy centers -- clubs, colleges, musea -- supplied information
for the roster. One version of the list was a takeaway at the World
Science Festival street fair in Washington Square on June 3.
The couple hundred copies put out in the NYSkies booth were
depleted about halfway thru the all-day fair, showing the incadescent
public interest in the Venus transit.
The list also included in NYC Events and PazMiniBits for June,
with the latter being a slightly updated version due to the timing of
when the two columns were issued.
An unexpected derivative of the compilation of the list was the
sampling of dialog on internal discussion groups of astronomy clubs.
Many clubs have a webpage, their own or linked to an external one,
where its members can converse among themselfs. They are much like the
yahoogroup fora or the older bulletin board or chat boards.
While in general only the members of a club may engage in the
dialog on a given board, the postings are readily copied and passed to
others outside of the club. Perhaps to illustrate the preparations of
the club for the transit, some of its members passed along occasional
samples of their board's dialog.
These I rad for interest only, never considering to circulate them
any farther than myself. Yes, they did show the work under way for the
transit, as well as other astronomy activity of the club.
Weird dialog
----------
One overriding topic in the weeks before the transit was the
weather prospects for viewing the event. The discussions were, to be
kind, extremely agitated and animated. Members ranked out each
other for credibility and sincerity, cited a this or that weather
expert, insisted on a this or that plan for adverse weather, accused
others of misinformation, and fired personal barbs.
For any celestial event, like routine stargazing, weather is
always a hypotect over the astronomer. Altho we can predict, to the
second of time and angle, the profile of the Venus transit for
centuries into the future, we plain can not foretell the weather for a
hour later.
In simplistic terms,the dialog illustrated why astronomy rose
above all other foretelling pursuits very early in human history. It
was the only discipline that yielded to faithful prediction.
An Assyrian astronomer could tell for certain that Jupiter and
Mars will stand side-by-side on such-&-such a day several months in
the future. No one else could make definitive predictions, like the
health of farm animals, yield of planted crops, flood of a river,
severity of winter.
The best they could do is offer odds and chances and advice to
prepare for prediction failure. The astronomer had no worry, Jupiter
and Mars WILL meet up on that future date, Period.
Weather situation
---------------
We came far from the early days of staring into the horizon to
glean some hint of future weather. We got advanced sensing and
monitoring devices, global network of recording stations, data
collection and processing, computer analysis and rendering, satellite
observations.
But, underneath the fancy gizmos, we really aren't all that much
better in issuing competent reliable accurate weather forecasts. We
read almost weekly about a weather calamity, in just the United
States, that was not properly foreseen. After much finger-pointing and
sacking of officials, the world is hardly the better for the
experience.
Litterally, if you didn't like the weather situation last year,
wait for next year for more of the same or possibly worse.
At first look it seems that the jack-ass debate among club members
fits into this lack of weather faculty in human society. The main
difference is that -- as far as I know! -- they aren't offering
sacrifices to the deities to induce good skywatching weather.
What's going on?
-----------
Having said all that above I do note that for the period of weeks
around the Venus transit the weather predictions were in fact pretty
much on the money. The correct forecast is 'chance of warm sun, clear
sky, shady breeze, overcast, showers, thunderstorm, moist chill for
tomorrow'.
The forecast for Washington DC included in the week before the
transit a tornado watch and western New Jersey was booked for sleet. I
DON'T MAKE UP THIS CRAP! New York City weather IS that whacked up.
The weather regime around New York in May and June is driven by
the change of season, from spring to summer. It is normal in late
spring, like around the Stonehenge sunset, World Science Festival,
Coney Island opening day, Fleet Week, and now the Venus transit, for
weather within a one day to range all over the map. I give examples
below for June 3 at the Festival fair and June 6 for the lift of
Shuttle Enterprise onto the Intrepid ship.
Anyone living in or frequenting the City region knows this
quiltwork of weather. It's called 'springtime'. It's why on a sunny
day you see cityfolk with an umbrella tucked in their backpack. They
learned long a to dismiss weather forecasts as a silly joke. They are
used to getting a sudden cold wind without a jacket on a warm day.
The astronomer
------------
Because the astronomer needs clear sky ro do stargazing, he must
quickly get tuned to the weather. There are several ways to do this.
One, the worse, is to just accept the forecast of a this or that
weather forecaster. You can recognize that astronomer.. He's te
drowned cat in short sleeves coming back from lunch.
An other is to somehow blend forecasts from several sources. In
this strategy there is no consensus for a method of blending, like
assigning weights to each source and striking a composite from them.
An other is to go it yourself by trending previous weather
parameters or comparing New York with other towns. This is hardly a
method at all since weather, unlike gold prices, can not be naively
trended, as Elias Loomis showed that to us in the early 1800s.
A strategy now I see, in heightened vigor for the transit, is to
just scream and bellow and argue with others. The last man standing
wins the forecast and the club better go along with that one.
Practicality
----------
Most of us don't bother that much with weather in a large town
because most of our day is indoors or other shelter. I, as example,
ride a bus and train to work, shop locally within a half-K of my
office, ride a train to the NYSkies Seminar or other after-work
activity, ride trains and buses to home. My outdoor exposure is
probably limited to a full one hour in bits and pieces during the day.
On the pleasant days I do take a long walk in midday, circling
around a two or three kilometer path in city streets. If the weather
turns adverse I duck into a store to hand and wait it out. Weather as
such doesn't really impede me for cotidian functions.
When I stargaze,I must then be mindful of weather. Time and time,
I look out in evening into clouds, later at night into clearing sky,
owl hours into clean dark sky, in dawn into haze. Or into evening dark
sky, light clouds, owlhour rain, dawn clear sky. Many many times a
planned observing session is killed by adverse weather. On other
instances I'm surprised to be treated to good skies.
Over the years I learned to live WITH the weather not against it.
Yes, I lost eclipses, comets, aurorae, other unique or rare event.
That's life for the astronomer. There is plain nothing we can do about
the weather.Just live with it.
On and off I hear of some supersecret skunk works project to beam
millimeter or micro waves over an enemy's land to generate storms
against it. If such projects are in the works, they aren't publicly
promoted. We are resigned to take the weather as it comes.
In my case, and that of hardened astronomers, we go out with full
intent to observe a celestial event and let Mother Nature do her thing
about it. We stand under the event, even if there are intervening
clouds.
Madness?
------
Is this crazy? Why should I prepare for the transit, go to the
observing site, and then be trounced by clouds?
SImple.
I have NO WAY to assure the coming or not of clouds. If I stay
home and the sky turns clear, I LOSE THE TRANSIT from my human nature!
Since I already put aside the time for the transit, gathered my
gear, studied about the event, adjusted sleep and meal regimen, and
all that, isn't it genuinely easier and simpler to just go thru the
exercise regardless of weather forecast?
It seems to me a thoro squander of effort to do everything to
anticipate the transit and then pitch all that work away by a
frivolous fear of clouds. If the weather breaks and your fellow
astronomer bring back good reports, you'll be miserable for weeks.
Picture yourself at a club meeting seeing pictures and hearing
accounts of the transit which you could have been part of by
presenting yourself to Nature.
The dialogs
---------
If the seasoned astronomer understands the nature of springtime
weather in and around the City, what's with the hobby-horsey chatter
on many club discussion site? From the samples I got, accounting for
people I do not know at all, it seems there are three braod categories
of commenters.
One is the newcomer to astronomy, who didn't yet acclimate to the
prevailing weather situation. The transit, or other very recent
astronomy activity, is his first real challenge to deal with weather.
The next category is the longtime astronomer who doesn't stargaze
regularly, but only on special occasions like the transit. He, too,
lacks weather wiseliness. Both of these kinds of person can be
pardoned for expressing frustration and confusion in the face of
conflicting and ambiguous forecasts. 'Please tell me once and for all
what I should do on Tuesday afternoon!!'
The third group are the longtime people who do regular stargazing,
but still act as if they are THE final word about weather. They claim
some extra expertise or special news source and insist you listen to
them. These are the guys who want elaborate contingency plans, as
detailed as the naval battles of the 1700s. Of course no one pays them
any serious mind. Then they get angry and the ugly dialog sets up.
Cancellations
-----------
Because stargazing requires clear skies, they are usually called
off for clouds. In NYC Events these events are tagged 'cancelled for
clouds'. For routine stargazing such a plan make sense. The crew to
hand naturally paces the weather. Lots of crew turn up for good clear
nights and only a couple are on hand under cloouds.
Why have anyone on site when it's cloudy? Two good reasons. One
you probably understand by now is that the actuality of cloud is
uncertain.
The other is that public may show up any way, not appreciating the
need for clear sky. A club agent better be thereto handle inquiries
and assure about future sessions.
For cancelled sessions, usually nothing much is lost save sky time
under the stars. Sessions are frequent, monthly at least, at a given
location. Some clubs have several series of stargazing at different
locations, so you can try for the next one in a week or two.
Depending on the location of the stargazing relative to the
'market' area for the public ,it's easier to just let people decide
for themselfs to come or not in questionable weather, put a recorded
note on a special phone number, issue a public notice via website or
social network. For New York City, where people generally arrive on
foot from surrounding housing or office blocks, the self-discretion
method works well. City stargazing groups post an agent to advise of
the cancellation and offer information about other club events.
2012 June 3
---------
I give here two examples 'typical' of what happens in New York
City springtime. June 3rd, Sunday, was the science street fair for
World Science Festival, The fair is the closing event of the annual
Festival and runs from 10:00 thru 18:00 EDST, a rain or shine. Being
wisely about City weather and having expended enormous work and money
to stage the fair, the Festival has no provision for calling it off.
The day started warm and sunny. The Sun ws actually dazzling,
hurting the eye when walking into it. Set up in Washington Square
proceded under a deep ice-blue sky.
NYSkies, like most other exhibitors, was in a tent that provided
shelter in case of rain and to keep cool away from direct sunlight.
Many other booths were open-air setups with no protection against the
elements. One was directly opposite NYSkies on a wide footpath fielded
by Hofstra University. It had several astronomy posters with a couple
crew to explain them.
An other open-air exhibit was Rutgers University's sungazing next
to the Arch, with about six small scopes with solar filters. They
enjoyed a couple hours of crisp clear skies.
By early afternoon the sky started clouding over with scattered
cumulus, but with substantial gaps between them. Sungazing proceded
with pauses and the poster exhibit went along without worry.
Then pretty suddenly there was a cloud burst! A dashing downpour
drenched the park! Visitors scrambled for shelter, usually into stores
outside the park. Some crammed into exhibitor tents.
The sungazing team rushed to NYSkies to stow their gear in its
tent. This was a contingency worked out between NYSkies and the
Festival before the street fair. The Festival gave a tent much larger
than what could fit NYSkies as shelter for a rain emergency.
Every open-air display was soaked. Hofstra packed up its exhibit,
now too wet to stand up properly. Other open-air booths were abandoned
in place as their crew dispersed for shelter. In many cases these
drowned booths did not reopen when the rain stopped.
This rain lasted only twenty minutes, after which the sky cleared
again. The Sun came out as brightly as before with scattered clouds
around him. The air heated up and dried the ground quickly. The fair
resumed with the fewer booths. Rutgers collected its scopes rom the
NYSkies tent and packed them up.
The sky wavered between bright blue sky wit bright Sun nad mostly
cloudy and cool. But the fair ran thru to the ending hour with no
further incident.
2012 June 6
---------
This day, Wednesday, was the day for SHuttle Enterprise to be
lifted from its barge to the deck of the Intrepid ship. From the
transit of Venus show at Intrepid on the previous day, NYSkies learned
that the SHuttle will arrive at the ship at 12:30 EDST and be hoisted
to the deck by marine crane. This was also announced on the Intrepid
website and in news media.
The day began with bright spring sunshine. I myself went to work
normally, then signed out an hour to go watch the lift. I stepped out
of the office building at11:30 into a rain sprinkle! The Sun was
shining, a s evidenced by sunlight on the upper floors of towers. This
was a sun shower!
I walked to the bus with a hooded jacket. It was a thin rain,
actually quite pleasant for walking thru. Then suddenly it stopped.
Just like that, as if some one turned off a garden sprinkler. The Sun
was now in clear sky with a few cumulus clouds!
The bus ride to Intrepid, at Pier 86 and Hudson River, was under
bright late morning sunlight. At the Pier the sky stayed quiet with
cumulus congestus hiding the Sun from time to time.
From arrival at 12:15, in time to watch Enterprise round the turn
to face Intrepid, thru 15:30 the sky maintained a consistently spring-
like demeanor. It looked as if the day would last like this until the
night. By the way, I had to leave at 15:30 because I was overstaying
my leave from work. Enterprise stayed on its barge and the lift
finally took place later in the afternoon.
The rest of the day at work was normal, as such can be in the
springtime weather pattern. Nothing much happened except that by 87:00
the sky was mostly clouded.
I took my train home, which along the way runs outdoors. On the
first outdoor segment the sky was thoroly overcast with only thin gaps
for an occasional ray of Sun shining thru.
On the next outdoor run I rode into a full-blown thunderstorm!
Lightning and thunder all over the sky! Pelting rain! Blustery winds!
When I got off to change to a bus the rain was still coming down hard.
The umbrellas were hauled out of the backpacks as riders hustled
to the street. I had the hoddedjacket which did defend against the
rain until the bus came along.
The flashes of lightning and booms of thunder made for a spooky
bus ride. But there was a yellowy glow in the west. The storm was
passing thru, opening clear sky in the west. When I got home I watched
a clear sunset!
Not all that clear but definitely good enough for a Stonehenge
sunset or a last look at Venus. No,there were no rainbows. And guess
what? Later at night it actually cleared up well enough for some
stargazing!
As wild a rain we had in most of the City from the thunderstorm,
the southern parts and Raritan Valley area of New Jersey suffered
worse. The rain turned into hail! Stones blasted the ground, damaging
car panels, windows, other light structures.
These two examples show how weather can shift radicly during a day
and overthrow a credible forecast. The best prediction was for chance
of shower, rain, thunderstorm. If any occurred, the prediction was
marked as 'good'. If none came along, it was marked as 'good'.
Contingency
---------
For meetings entirely in the open-air, away from shelter, there is
probably no choice but to scratch the event for clouds. With nothing
else to occupy the crew and visitors in an open field,it's best to
pack up and go home.
For places with or near shelter there can be the possibility of
offering alternative program in case of clouds. The event could be
rain-or-shine. The shelter could be a pavilion, gazebo, orangerie,
garage, as provided by the site manager. The club must make proper
agreement about using the shelter before the event.
The Intrepid viewing for the transit, with a team form NYSkies,
was such an event. The shelter for alternate program was -- I KID YOU
NOT!! -- the underbelly of the Concorde supersonic airplane! It
didn't rain but it was a good focal point for two lectures offered by
Intrepid and NYSkies during the clouded over spans of the transit.
Views of Venus were obtained thru several gaps in the clouds of up to
ten minute duration.
Suburban astronomers have it easier to find shelter than their
city fellows. Suburban folk go to the stargazing by car. They can
huddle in them to sit out rain or cloud. It can be tricky to offer a
substitute program but at least they don't have to flee for home.
City folk arrive on foot or transit. They have no ready shelter to
hand. It can be tough to find emergency quarters for rain, wind, cold,
other adverse condition.
One useful way to set up a stargazing session is to make the
actual viewing of the stars an optional extra treat. The main program
is indoors. The club gives a slideshow, film, lecture, demonstration.
f the sky holds out well, the visitors go outside for stargazing. Else
the session winds down for the night.
Such a plan does need a suitable available facility on site. In
selecting a stargazing location, hard attention should be given to
arrange for such facilities. In the territory of the club there could
well be no luxury of a cloud-or-stars meeting but that must be learned
by a dedicated and deliberate search.
Go-no-go decision
----------------
For events that can be ruined by cloud and other bad weather,
there could be a go-no-go system of alerting crew and visitors. With
the whacky swings of weather in late spring and early summer, this
means a hard-hearted process of issuing the decision and then sticking
with it. A single specific person, delegated by the leader of the
event, makes the decision and approves its dissemination to the world.
This person accepts no challenges, objections, disputes for the
decision. What he says is it, period.
How to distribute the go-no-go alert? A common method is by
recorded message on the club's telephone. An other is a prominent
panel on the club's website. At third possibility is to have a radio
station pass on the word when announcing other events for the day, as
it does for school closings for storms.
Even in the case of a cancellation it is wise to station a club
agent at the site to receive visitors who missed the alert or judged
the sky on their own. It could be clear in spite of the cancellation,
which was issued an hour or more earlier. The agent explains the
situation, offers litterature, reminds of the notification process,
and welcomes the visitor to a future indoor club meeting. This agent
can, if the sky allows, do star-ID and answer astronomy questions.
Rain dates
--------
This plan is nonsense for the Venus transit, unless you don't mind
preserving your rain check for 105 years. Some clubs when cancelling a
stargazing session post a new date, like a week later, as a makeup.
Depending on the social platform the club's market operates on, this
system works well or not at all.
For the rain date scheme to work, the crew must obligate to TWO
dates, not one. Else there must be TWO crews, one for the prime date
and one for the rain date. In some markets this is no major problem,
there being little else in the town to occupy crew's leisure time. In
other markets a rain date is impossible to sell to the crew for its
general busyness and lifestyle.
Assuming it's the same crew for the both dates, it can not plan
any other activity for either date UNTIL at least the first date is
passed. If the meeting is held, the sky being clear, THEN and ONLY
THEN is the rain date released. According as the lifestyle of the
club, this could punch a hole in the crew's calendar. It could be too
late to fill by substitute activity.
Only AFTER the rain date is passed, whether as a go or a no-go
date, can the crew revert to normal activity. How the crew takes to
this saddling for two dates, only one, ot nonr!, of which will be
realized for stargazing, is very specific to each club's market. The
club must be wisely about the lifestyle of its members to properly
operate a rain date system.
Conclusion
--------
Altho this discussion of weather for the Venus transit was sparked
by the dialogs on club websites, it applies to public stargazing in
general. The essential point to mind is that, unlike astronomy events,
weather events are no where near certain foretelling. No amount of
claims to superior sources and intelligence can change that feature,
else you plain would be the richest person on Earth with world leasers
licking your boots.
The club must organize its public stargazing according as the
circumstances of its market. The wo main choices are clear sky only vs
rain or shine and one date vs rain date.
The example two days near the Venus transit illustrate how erratic
weather, in the NYSkies, region, cn be. Contingency planning is a must
for a satisfying program of stargazing, if not always a successful
one.
clubs should mind the dialog among its members. One way is to
close the dialog section from causal access by outsiders, perhaps by
requiring a password or member code